{"id":1940,"date":"2014-01-26T15:24:45","date_gmt":"2014-01-26T15:24:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/rs\/en\/the-probability-of-macro-evolution\/"},"modified":"2014-01-26T15:24:45","modified_gmt":"2014-01-26T15:24:45","slug":"the-probability-of-macro-evolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/r-islam.com\/en\/the-probability-of-macro-evolution\/","title":{"rendered":"The Probability of Macro-evolution"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" alignright size-full wp-image-1939\" style=\"float: right; margin: 10px;\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/rs\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/01\/icc.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" width=\"398\" height=\"207\" srcset=\"https:\/\/r-islam.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/01\/icc.jpg 398w, https:\/\/r-islam.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/01\/icc-300x156.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 398px) 100vw, 398px\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Introduction: <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Science has accomplished enormous progress and achievements in genetics since the turn of the 21<sup>st<\/sup>century.&nbsp; Scientists have sequenced and mapped the entire genomes of more than 2800 organisms\/species including human, and the count is on.[1]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Macroevolution of evolution theory tells us that humans, as well as other multicellular forms of life, have evolved from primitive single-celled organisms that fall under the kingdom of prokaryotes or even more primitive.[2] Prokaryotes are single-celled organisms that have no true nucleus as their genome is not contained within a membrane nor distinct from the rest of the cell.&nbsp; They are the earliest and most primitive forms of life found on earth.[3] Is there a chance for this evolution to have taken place from a simple, single cell to a human being during the age of the universe?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The human genome[4] contains approximately 3 billion chemical nucleotide base pairs (A, C, T, and G).[5] Approximately 34 million nucleotide bases of the human genome encode for the production of proteins that are vital to all living processes.[6] These 34 million nucleotides are called genes.&nbsp; Proteins are made of amino acids.&nbsp; Each amino acid is encoded for by a codon, and each codon is composed of 3 nucleotides.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">You can think of nucleotides as alphabets of 4 letters pool, and codons as words of 3 letters length.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The sequence of these nucleotides within genes is what defines the characteristics and functions of a living organism and its nature; will it be a bacterium, a plant, a fly, a fish, or a human.&nbsp; The sequence of this coding in human genes, as well as other organisms, is so sophisticated, precise, and well organized that it is comparable to the sequence of alphabets in a Shakespeare\u2019s poem, a novel, a thesis, a computer program, or an encyclopedia of 2 million words (or 2 volumes).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">According to macroevolution, this precise sequence, coding, has come into being by random mutations[7] and natural selection.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Maximum Possible Mutations During the Age of the Universe<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">We will try to find out here the maximum number of mutations that can occur during the age of the universe based on assumptions that favor evolution.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The maximum number of mutations a human genome can undergo during its course of evolution from a single cell to a human is 3 billion mutations per generation since that is the largest size the genome of mammals has reached.&nbsp; This is an extreme assumption in favor of evolution.&nbsp; In reality, mutation rate ranges approximately between 0.003 and 350 mutations per genome per generation.[8]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The shortest generation time reported to date is the generation of<em>Pseudomonas natriegens<\/em>, a marine bacterium with a generation time of 9.8 minutes.[9] Nevertheless, going once again to the utmost in favor of evolution, we can assume that we are getting a new generation every one second.&nbsp; Thus, during the age of the universe,[10] which is about 15 billion years,[11] the maximum number of generations that can be reached is:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Universe age in years \u00d7 Days per year \u00d7 Seconds per day<br \/>15 billion \u00d7 365 \u00d7 86400<br \/>which equals less than 10<sup>18<\/sup> generations (1 with 18 zeros after it).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The last piece of information needed to calculate the maximum number of possible mutations is the population of these single-celled organisms.&nbsp; For that we will assume a very large number that leaves no place for more; the number of atoms in the observable universe that is about 10<sup>82<\/sup>.[12]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Thus, based on previous results and generous assumptions, the maximum number of mutations that may occur in the entire universe and during its age is:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Mutations per generation \u00d7 Generations during universe age \u00d7 Population<br \/>3 billion \u00d7 10<sup>18<\/sup> \u00d7 10<sup>82<br \/><\/sup>which equals less than&nbsp;<strong>10<sup>110<\/sup> mutations<\/strong> (1 with 110 zeros after it).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Number of Random Mutations Required for the Evolution into a Human<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The genes of human genome consist of approximately 34 million nucleotides.[13]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">The largest genome in simple, single-celled organisms, prokaryotes, is about 13 million nucleotides.[14]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Thus, there is a difference of at least 21 million nucleotides between prokaryote organisms and humans.&nbsp; And for a single cell to evolve into a human, the evolutionary process needs to mutate \u2013which may include insertion\u2013 at least 21 million nucleotides with the correct nucleotide base and in the correct sequence.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">In genes, each amino acid \u2013the building block of proteins that are vital to all living processes\u2013 is coded for by 3 nucleotides, which is called a codon.&nbsp; 21 million nucleotides means 7 million codons.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Random mutations have one of three effects: Neutral, Deleterious (harmful), or beneficial.&nbsp; Only beneficial mutations can contribute to the evolutionary process.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">In living organisms, there are 20 different amino acids and a stop code,[15] thus, the total is 21.[16] Any mutation will lead to one of these 20 amino acids or the stop code.[17]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Therefore, each mutation falling inside genes, the coding region of the genome,[18] has a chance of approximately 1\/21 of not altering the amino acid (i.e. coding for the same amino acid) and thus being a neutral mutation, and a chance of approximately 20\/21 of altering the amino acid.[19] 70% of these 20\/21 mutations are deleterious (harmful) mutations.[20] Nevertheless, for the sake of evolution, we will assume that all mutations which are altering amino acids are beneficial mutations.&nbsp; Thus, each mutation has a chance of approximately 20\/21 of being beneficial.[21]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Therefore, the probability for 7 million codons to mutate randomly with beneficial mutations is:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Chance of mutation for being beneficial&nbsp;<em>to the power of<\/em> Number of codons<br \/>20\/21&nbsp;<em>to the power of<\/em> 7 million<br \/>which equals&nbsp;<strong>1 to more than 10<sup>100,000<\/sup><\/strong> (1 with 100,000 zeros after it).[22]<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Could natural selection have enhanced the chances of mutations in our scenario?&nbsp; Never, since what natural selection basically does is to sustain lineages with beneficial or neutral mutations and to eliminate lineages with harmful mutations.&nbsp; Natural selection does not prevent beneficial mutations from being mutated again.&nbsp; Moreover, in our scenario, we have already assumed that all mutations are either neutral or beneficial, and have ruled out harmful mutations.&nbsp; Thus, natural selection cannot do any better in this scenario.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Conclusion<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Therefore, we need more than 10<sup>100,000<\/sup> (1 with 100,000 zeros after it) random mutations to occur so that a simple, single-celled organisms may evolve into a human, while we can only get less than 10<sup>110<\/sup> (1 with 110 zeros after it) mutations during the age of the universe, even when the entire universe is a stage for this evolutionary process.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">All these calculations were based on human genes \u2013that constitute less than 2% of the genome\u2013 without taking into consideration the junk region that consumes approximately 98% of the human genome, which turned out not to be junk anymore.&nbsp; The ENCODE Project Consortium was able to assign biochemical functions for 80% of the human genome and found that approximately 20% of it regulates the genes.&nbsp; The results of the five-year ENCODE project were published in 2012 in the journals Nature, Science, Genome Biology and Genome Research.[23] The ENCODE consortium\u2019s 442 researchers, situated in 32 institutes around the world, used 300 years of computer time and five years in the lab to get their results.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\">Hoping this study was beneficial in shedding some light on this crucial topic.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: large;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'times new roman', times;\"><br \/> Foot notes &amp; ref: www.r-islam.com <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Introduction: Science has accomplished enormous progress and achievements in genetics since the turn of the 21stcentury.&nbsp; Scientists have sequenced and mapped the entire genomes of more than&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":1939,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-atheism"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Probability of Macro-evolution - Right Islam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/r-islam.com\/en\/the-probability-of-macro-evolution\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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